Title: Fundamentals of Predictable Economy: Economy from the Standpoint of General System Theory
Author: Yury G. Geltser
Publisher: Toplink Publishing, LLC
ISBN: 978-1949804041
Pages: 384
Genre: Career Guides/Business & Money
Interviewed by: Anthony Avina

Read Author Interview

PBR: Tell us a little bit about yourself.
Yury G. Geltser was born in 1952 on Sakhalin Island, Russia. He is a well-known entrepreneur and scientist. Upon graduation from secondary school, Mr. Geltser studied at the Kuibyshev Planning Institute, presently known as the Samara State University of Economics. During his professional career, Mr. Geltser has held numerous managing positions in the agricultural, construction, and oil production industries focusing on Economics. In 1985 Mr. Geltser was admitted to the Graduate Program at the Central Economic Mathematical Institute of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR, presently known as the Central Economic Mathematical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences. In 1986 Mr. Geltser headed the laboratory for organization of production at the Nizhnevartovsk Science and Research Institute located in the Tyumen Region of Russia, primarily servicing the oil production industry. Since the early 1990s Mr. Geltser has built a reputation of an accomplished entrepreneur in the fields of engineering structure construction and commercial real estate leasing. He attained his second higher education degree at the Moscow State University of Civil Engineering and completed his dissertation in the field of organization of construction industry based on General System Theory in 1999. Mr. Geltser is a candidate of Technical Sciences and a full member (academician) of the St. Petersburg Academy of Engineering in the Department of Economics and Management in Engineering. Mr. Geltser is a full member of the Academy of Investment and Construction Economy. He is a published author of two books and over hundred scientific articles. Being an accomplished poet and composer, Mr. Geltser produced three music albums. He is married and has two children. In his spare time he enjoys reading as well as playing piano and sports.

PBR: What was the inspiration behind your book, “Fundamentals of Predictable Economy: Economy from the Standpoint of General System Theory”?
While working on my Ph.D. dissertation, I was introduced to a discipline that was new to me, known as the General System Theory. After I published a number of articles in this field, I returned to my beloved Political Economy. After a while however, I realized the need to connect these two sciences. This is how this book “Fundamentals of Predictable Economy” was born.

PBR: What themes or messages do you hope readers take away from you novel?
The main thing that I would like to convey to the readers of my book is that Economics is not a collection of topics about supply and demand, commodity, money and stock markets. This is not so much a battlefield for class battles but a platform for general cooperation for the benefit of all. Economics can be an orderly science, an integral orderly system. The certificate of quality of science is its ability to predict the consequences of actions performed in the field of a research subject. However, to achieve this result in the economy, the economy itself must be transformed into compliance with the system requirements. The main backbone factor is the goal. Depending on it, all elements and structures are created. The goal determines the nature of the relationship between the structures of the system. At the same time, we must not forget that the economy itself is only a part of our world. It is the scientists who divide the world into its components to make it easier to study. But the world is whole. It is whole organically. There is no separate Physics, Chemistry, Biology, or Economics in the world. Therefore, the economy cannot be divorced from social, political, technical, or technological components within the educational, scientific, or practical spheres. And the more so it cannot be divorced from the ethical norms of behavior. There is no base and superstructure, as the Marxists teach. Everything lives and interacts. Causes and effects periodically change places depending on the prevailing conditions. The world largely moves by means of the objective laws along an objectively traced trajectory to its destination. Our goals are subjective. We can only guess our mission with varying degrees of accuracy in order to choose a goal that would most closely correspond to its trajectory. However, there is a key that will allow us to err in the least degree: a goal should not go beyond the limits of the social moral values corridor. Nevertheless, no goal can justify immoral means. There must be organic unity between goals and means. The economic system is a subjective system. A man plays a dominant role in it. A man is an agent of the system as well as its converter. The systematic construction of the economy allows it to be carried out in a planned manner based on scientific forecasts. At the same time, we do not accept the controllability and pettiness of the planning adopted in the USSR at a certain period of time. We find a specific pattern of the planning within its destination. There is a certain objective direction with the maximum freedom of what, how and how much should be accomplished. Today, however, we can be more focused to spend less effort, less energy, and fewer materials to achieve our goals. Why should we refuse it? The market may very well be regulated through the plan, while at the same time maintaining the market itself and making it more perfect. An important topic is sustainability, which is secured by constant changes. I suggest that the readers familiarize themselves with this issue on their own, as well as with questions of the new theory of modern money. Professional economists cannot be disinterested in the new approaches in the theory of expanded reproduction.

PBR: Who are the authors or experts in the economic world have been a source of inspiration for you on your own writing of this book?
Of modern economists I am inspired the most by the books of Joseph Stiglitz. As for the General System Theory, I am convinced Kartashev’s book “System of Systems” is the classic source.

PBR: If you were able to sit down with anyone involved with or associated with the global changes mentioned in your book, what would you want to ask them and why?
I am impressed by how the President of the United States Donald Trump is concerned for the interests of his own country. He expresses this concern by searching for answers to the “challenges” that the country has undergone in recent decades. Many of his decisions receive an ambiguous assessment, but I leave this analysis to the Americans in order to determine what’s beneficial for their country and what’s not. In my book, I emphasize the most dangerous “challenges” are those that have been existing for decades or even centuries and that become so familiar to us that we ultimately do not notice how the changes they make become irreversible. At this stage, they destroy the system, and nothing can save it any longer. In my opinion, such a “challenge” is the growing inequality. The basis of the capital system development is competition and the law of value discovered by A. Smith. But a side effect of this development is the growth of inequality within the society. To a certain degree, this circumstance, in and of itself likely, contributed to the development process. Recently, however, well-known economists, including the Nobel laureate J. Stiglitz, draw our attention to the fact that the situation is rapidly approaching a critical point. Competition in the market is being replaced by the fight for the markets. Incomes are generated at the expense of rent, which is acquiring a much broader meaning than it’s had in the feudal society and even in the nineteenth century. The law of value stops working; competition and technical progress are vanishing, whereas the capitalist system is dying along with them. 1% of the richest people do own the same property today as the remaining 99% of the population. In fact, the bulk of the wealth is concentrated in the hands of 0.1% of the population. Today, only very few scholars are attempting to look beyond the edge of the abyss, and there are no economists or political scientists among them for some reason. Optimists see this as an approach of social revolutions. Pessimists are creating various dystopias about turning the masses of people into slaves; about achievements of the biological science, which will make the rich immortal supermen with the help of big bucks; about the need to destroy the superfluous people who are not needed to service the “golden billion.” I would like to know to what extent the US political establishment is aware of the looming threat and what its plan of action might entail.

This problem, however, exists not only among people, but also among different countries. In today’s world, the United States positions itself as a superpower and as an example of the democratic, social, scientific, and technological development. At the same time, the world’s system is organized according to the principle of a hierarchical pyramid where the center or the tip is the United States. Then there are developed countries of Europe, Japan, and China. Next, there are countries of the neighboring and distant peripheries. US-controlled institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and the World Trade Organization (WTO), are called upon to maintain this world order while mainly controlling it through financial instruments. At the same time, the US is attempting to constantly create conditions that ensure the elites of other countries are dependent upon the structures and establishments of their own countries. Such a staggered structure seems sustainable upon the first glance only. Artificially sustained inequality creates a huge potential for future social upheavals and world wars. Whether the US President understands this and whether he is ready to take any steps to remove the growing contradictions are questions at issue. Today there is no serious counterbalance to this system yet. However, it is not set in stone we will not see it by the mid 21st century. The solution to the problem of equality lies in the political, economic, and moral aspects. Equality entails a legal restriction of the degrees of freedom of a certain group of citizens. Even socialists dislike talking about this, while promising freedom and equality at the same time. However, implicitly, the same socialists and liberals are presently creating the world’s monetary and credit concentration camp. Hiding behind the latest technologies under the meaningless nametag of “digital economy,” the security structures and the powerful of this world get unlimited access to the private lives of citizens. There are invented illegal terms like “dubious transaction,” depriving citizens of their basic freedoms and “presumption of innocence.” Gospel prophecy is coming true that nothing can be sold or bought without having the mark of the Antichrist on oneself.

Approximately 3,000 years ago, people were able to limit their freedoms by the rule of “measure for measure.” Nowadays, it is necessary to limit the right of 0.1% of the country’s population to rip off the rest of the population with impunity. To do this, there is no need to create the conditions of a concentration camp for the vast majority of the world’s population. At the same time, national and transnational monopolies have no “doubts” whatsoever about their right to rip off the others. Are you able to oppose these negative tendencies with the political will, or will you prefer that the people pay for their rights with their own blood as it has been done for centuries?

PBR: Do you think the current political climate around the world has impacted our economy both on a global and on each individual nation’s scale?
Of course, political trends have an impact on economic life. The collapse of the socialist camp and the Soviet Union had the most significant impact on the economic world system. The capitalist world took it as its personal accomplishment and fully let the liberalism break free. However, this view is the result of the erroneousness of conclusions made by politicians and scientists. The problems of the Soviet Union were mainly internal in nature. Its collapse was due to the prolonged reluctance and inability of the ruling communist elite to solve these problems. The same result awaits the United States if it fails to acknowledge its problems in a timely manner. The ancient Rome was conquered by the barbarians, but they simply destroyed what had rotten a long time ago. It would seem the cessation of the arms race and the disarmament that took place after the Cold War should have freed up enormous resources, namely monetary, human, and material for the purpose of the world development, which had previously been spent in preparation for wars. However, this did not happen. The income growth for the blue-collar and middle classes has practically stopped worldwide, except China. Therewith, the demand-oriented capitalist economy has put limitations on its bases for development. The crisis of 2008 should have sobered the politicians. In my opinion, this did not happen. The immorality of the capitalist economy is its integral part because it is built into the system. These are the laws of the market and its orientation to profit. This immorality is being increasingly concentrated in its financial block. The formula of monetary circulation, M – P – M,’ where P stands for “power,” is putting increasing pressure on the growth of the above mentioned inequality. To make the economy moral is possibly only by changing its goals. My next book will be devoted to this issue. Terrorist acts in Russia (apartment bombings in 1999, events in Beslan and Nord-Ost) as well as September 11, 2001 in the United States further contributed to the growth of inequality. This is the second most important political event in the world during the past decades. I have no doubts the special services were involved in the terrorist attacks in Russia. I also have a lot of questions concerning the terrorist attack in New York. The ensuing restrictions of the economic freedoms and the growing interference with the privacy of citizens thereafter is unlikely to be challenged. The political actions that followed could include the fight against offshore companies. In Russia, however, this affected only some part of the medium-sized businesses, but not more than that. We received no return of capital; it remained in the West. Experts estimate its volume to exceed $1 trillion. In return, we only got tax increases. Russian academician D.S. Lvov argued, and I fully agree with him, that the Russian economy could function without imposing taxes at all, but only withholding natural and monopoly rents. The Russian government listened to him and began to withhold as much as possible on both fronts. At the same time, it prefers to keep excess collected funds on deposits in the Western banks. Thus, the Russian economy became drained of blood, corrupted by the mafia and, at the same time, clamped by the police controlled measures. Interestingly enough, in the early 2000s, Russia witnessed a boom in the scientific proposals for the economic reform. Proposals rained down from right and left. Nowadays, however, they have realized the Russian authorities do not need any advice. They are simply incapable to be reformed. Today, they are covering up their inability with the sanctions imposed by the Western nations that have befallen them. However, in the opinion of many reputable economists, these sanctions are more demonstrative in nature than they are intended to inflict any real damage upon Russia. This does not mean I stand for the expansion of sanctions. I am generally for other methods of influence. After the World War II, a trial was held over the Nazi elite of Germany in Nuremberg, Germany. One of the main charges at these court proceedings was the usurpation of power in Germany by a narrow group of people in pursuit of their own interests. Unfortunately, court decisions on this issue did not set a precedent for international relations. The Putins, the Assads, and the Maduros of this world are shamelessly violating the rights of millions of earthlings and interpret the international criticism solely as interference in the internal affairs of their nations. I think sanctions should not punish the peoples who are unable to influence the policies of their police-controlled and bureaucratic states, but rather extract the overblown dictators and fraudsters and put them on the defendants’ bench at the Hague Tribunal.

PBR: Social media is a huge part of an author’s work in this modern age. Do you use social media to promote your work and if so, what has been the one social media site that has allowed you to connect with readers the most?
I always try to write in a simple lay-person language that even an unprepared reader can easily understand. I post my articles in Russia either on www.newsland.com a/k/a Hyde Park or on the website Philosophical Storm. In general, people of my generation connected with science try not to waste time on social media. And for good reason. They compare social media with a “smoking area” at some train station which anyone can access. Those may often be people who are not welcomed into a decent society. And now, finally, once in public, such persons are trying to attract maximum attention to themselves. However, by reason of their intellect, they can only do this by insulting the others, and above all – an author of an article, by expressing some vulgarity or by being rude. There are also trolls hired by the government intelligence agencies whose task is to divert a reader’s attention from breaking topics. Having no arguments, they do not shun to make anti-Semitic insults. Apparently, this is their purpose. Therefore, when turning to social media, we must be prepared for anything and face it calmly. I try not to interfere in any discussions of my articles, unless I am asked to clarify certain points. Views of my articles sometimes exceed 100,000, which is quite a good result for scientific publications. However, I always hope that, even if there are 1 – 2 readers who are genuinely interested in my material, this can be considered a factor of success.

PBR: Now that you have published your book, what are your future plans? Any other novels or research papers in the works?
Recently, I have been preoccupied with writing a new book titled “And you will be like Gods knowing the good and the evil …,” the first part of which I hope to publish in 2019.